Everyone waited for lower rates in 2026. Rates went the other way, and local homes kept selling.

The local answer: Grants Pass homes that sold in the last 12 months closed at a median of $405,000, at 98.76% of list price, while the 30-year mortgage rate sits at 7.18% (Freddie Mac, Nov. 5, 2026).

I'm Michael O'Coyne, an Oregon broker with RE/MAX Integrity in Grants Pass. At the end of February, the 30-year rate averaged 5.98% (Freddie Mac). It is 7.18% now, so any plan built on February's numbers needs a second look. This post is that second look, built from sales records I pulled from the Southern Oregon MLS on November 9 and from the forecasts published in October.

One limit before we start. The local figures cover the 12 months ending November 9, 2026, and I don't yet have the same pull for the year before. That means this post describes where the market stands today. It doesn't claim prices rose or fell.

What did mortgage rates do in 2026?

They rose about 1.2 points. Freddie Mac's weekly average for a 30-year fixed loan was 5.98% on February 26 and 7.18% on November 5 (Freddie Mac, Feb. 26; Freddie Mac, Nov. 5). A year earlier, in November 2025, it was 6.22%. Freddie Mac's number is a national average, so your lender's quote will differ.

Here is what that does to a monthly payment. On a $300,000 loan, the principal-and-interest payment is below.

The Federal Reserve is part of the story. It held its target range at 3.75% to 4.00% on October 28 in a 10-2 vote, and both dissenters wanted a quarter-point increase (Federal Reserve). That followed a quarter-point increase on September 16 (Securities.io). The Fed's overnight rate and a mortgage rate are different numbers, but a Fed that is leaning toward higher rates is not a Fed that is about to hand borrowers relief.

What do forecasters expect for 2027?

Higher for longer. Fannie Mae's October forecast has the 30-year rate averaging 7.4% in the fourth quarter of 2026 and 7.5% in every quarter of 2027 (Mortgage Professional America). In September, it had 6.7% for 2027 (Florida Realtors). The Mortgage Bankers Association, speaking at its October convention, expects rates to stay above 7% through 2027 (HousingWire).

Not everyone agrees. TD Cowen researchers expect about 6.8% by the end of 2026 and 6.6% in 2027, as reported in October (Beinsure). The spread between 6.6% and 7.5% is a wide one.

A forecast that moved 0.8 points in one month is a range, not a promise.

On prices, Fannie Mae's Home Price Index is forecast to rise 0.6% in 2027, down from 2.7% in 2026 (Mortgage Professional America). The MBA expects national price growth to slow in 2027 and home sales to stay relatively flat (HousingWire). These are national forecasts. None of them is a forecast for Josephine or Jackson County.

Is Grants Pass a buyer's market or a seller's market?

Neither cleanly. In the 12 months to November 9, 2026, 47.16% of Grants Pass homes sold or went under contract within 30 days, and 18.82% took 121 days or more. That is a market where pricing decides the outcome. The typical closed sale landed at 98.76% of its final list price, and at 96.61% of the original list price, so the first asking price is where most of the negotiating happened.

Source: Southern Oregon MLS (flexmls) residential statistics, listings in the pull dated Nov. 9, 2025 to Nov. 9, 2026, pulled Nov. 9, 2026. Grants Pass is the city; Josephine is the whole county, including rural. Speed shares cover homes that sold or went under contract.

Grants Pass is the center of the county's market. By our math from the same pulls, the city accounts for about 81% of Josephine County's closed sales (835 of 1,027) and about 74% of its active listings (335 of 455).

How does Medford compare with Grants Pass?

Medford sold for more and moved faster. The Medford median sold price was $424,200 against $405,000 in Grants Pass, a gap of $19,200 or about 4.7%. In Medford, 51.07% of homes sold or went under contract within 30 days, against 47.16% in Grants Pass, and 13.25% took 121 days or more, against 18.82%.

Source: Southern Oregon MLS (flexmls) residential statistics, same window and method as above. Jackson County covers all cities and rural areas in the county.

I also pulled seven Jackson County cities together (Ashland, Central Point, Eagle Point, Jacksonville, Medford, Phoenix and Talent). They had a median sold price of $445,245 on 2,420 closed sales, about 86% of the county's 2,805. That blend runs higher than Medford alone because Ashland and Jacksonville pull it up, so use the Medford figure when you compare it with Grants Pass.

What can a 12-month snapshot not tell you?

Quite a lot, and it is better to say so. This is what the numbers don't do:

• They don't show direction. Without the prior year, I can't say whether Grants Pass prices are up or down.
• They aren't the same as the quarterly Realtor releases. Those report urban existing homes only. These pulls include all residential listings, rural and new construction included, so the medians won't match.
• They don't price your house. A median is the middle of all sales. Your home's size, condition and location decide where it sits.

Should I wait for lower rates?

That is my professional interpretation, not a forecast. If your plans can wait and your budget is comfortable either way, waiting is a reasonable choice. The point is to decide with the payment math in front of you.

What is coming to the Rogue Valley in 2027?

Two local projects come up when buyers ask me about the next few years. Medford's airport served 1,100,027 passengers in 2025, and its director said construction on terminal expansion is expected to start sometime in 2027 (Medford Alert). In Shady Cove, Hunter Communications is building a fiber network, with a ribbon cutting held on May 28, 2025 (Hunter Communications).

Neither project has a measured effect on home prices that I can cite. I'm listing them because people ask, and because they show where the area is investing.

What should buyers and sellers do before 2027?

Order of work for either side. Rate scenarios are examples, not forecasts.

Common questions

Before you plan around 2027

Rates went up this year, forecasters expect them to stay up, and local homes are still selling at a steady pace in both cities. Rates will do what they do. Your price, your payment and your timeline are the part you can plan.

Michael O'Coyne is an Oregon real estate broker with RE/MAX Integrity in Grants Pass, working with buyers and sellers across Josephine and Jackson Counties.

This post is general information, current as of November 9, 2026. It isn't legal, tax, or financial advice. Rates and forecasts change, so confirm the details with the sources linked above or a lender. Source records may be revised. Pricing recommendations are Michael's professional interpretation.

Sources

Mortgage rates

• Freddie Mac, Primary Mortgage Market Survey, week of Nov. 5, 2026
• Freddie Mac, Mortgage Rates release, Feb. 26, 2026

Federal Reserve

• Federal Reserve, FOMC statement, Oct. 28, 2026
• Securities.io, FOMC Holds Federal Funds Target Range as Two Members Dissent (Sept. 16 increase)

2027 forecasts (read through trade press; Fannie Mae's own site did not load)

• Mortgage Professional America, Fannie Mae just dramatically upped its 2027 mortgage rate expectations
• Florida Realtors, Fannie Mae raises 2027 mortgage rate forecast, October 2026
• Beinsure, Fannie Mae raises US mortgage rate forecast to 7.5% for 2027
• HousingWire, MBA originations forecast, Oct. 11, 2026

Local market data

• Southern Oregon MLS via flexmls, residential statistics for Josephine County, Grants Pass, Jackson County, the seven Jackson County cities and Medford, listings dated Nov. 9, 2025 to Nov. 9, 2026, pulled by Michael O'Coyne on Nov. 9, 2026 (not a public page)

Local projects

• Medford Alert, Medford Airport breaks passenger record as growth fuels future expansion, Jan. 14, 2026
• Hunter Communications, Shady Cove fiber